Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 1st May 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 5th May 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 5.87% to finish the end of the trading week at 84.42 NOK. I made some changes to the horizontal support and resistance dotted green and red lines.

The Oslo FoB Index is currently challenging the 85.17 NOK horizontal resistance zone and the underside of the diagonal trendline that originates at the July 2025 price lows. The Oslo FoB Index has respected this trendline in the past, meaning it’s possible the Oslo FoB Index will respect this trendline now and into the future. Notice the fishhook appearance on the Oslo FoB Index price chart formed from the last couple days of trading.

The Composite Index has only risen to this displacement peak during a bear market four previous times within the available history. The other four times this occurred the Oslo FoB Index during bear markets the Oslo FoB Index soon after made a price high and experienced a correction in prices. The bearish signal that was in the Composite Index last week is still there and now displaying a stronger signal. To help the reader, I put black trendline on the Composite Index and RSI panes to help the reader. At the start of the black trendline, March 31, 2026, the Composite Index and RSI were at lower displacements while being at higher prices. Now the Composite Index and RSI are at higher displacements while being at the lower prices. The Composite Index and RSI are more oversold at higher prices. This is not a bullish setup in the indicators. The light blue and green trendlines crossed at April 24, 2026. This might be a signal for the halfway move in prices. If this is the case, it projects a price high on Wednesday April 29th, 2026. The dotted green and brown trendlines are intersecting Friday May 1, 2026. The brown and dotted green trendlines appear to be crossing around Thursday May 14, 2026.

The RSI moved to higher displacements during the price gains during this week of trading. The RSI and Composite Index both currently have the fishhook look to them, the indicators appear to be rolling over. The RSI is continuing to operate in a bearish displacement zone range. The RSI and the Composite Index both have some history of making displacement highs near their current displacements. The black and light blue trendlines intersect near Wednesday May 11, 2026.

In summary, I’m still thinking the Oslo FoB Index is winding up for another move down in prices. I was expecting the same thing in last week’s update and was obviously wrong. Welcome to my world of eating humble pie. I’m certainly not always correct in my view or projections but who is? The bearish signals that were in the chart last week are still there this week and now are displaying an even stronger bearish signal. The Oslo FoB Index is also testing the 85.17 NOK horizontal resistance zone and the underside of the diagonal trendline. Last week the Oslo FoB Index was not testing a horizontal resistance zone. There is a time target for May 1, and May 13 and 14. The signal dates of the May 13 and 14 are likely the same signal.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction