Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 12th March 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 16th March 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 1.79% during this week of trading to end the week at 100.93 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index has been making a nice move up with higher price lows and higher price highs.

The Oslo FoB Index has also climbed above the 98.80 NOK price area that was displaying a confluence of price resistance. With the Oslo FoB Index breaking into recent new price highs, I reworked the horizontal support and resistance zones. The next logical resistance zone is at 103.67 NOK. There is confluence of resistance at the 108.90 NOK resistance zone. I put blue numbers on the most recent swing up. Wave 1 up is the same length as wave 3 up. Meaning, if wave 5 up is the same length as wave 1 and 3, this lines up perfectly with the 108.90 NOK horizontal resistance zone. There is also confluence of resistance from different unrelated methods at the 114.48 NOK horizontal resistance zone. Coincidence? Not a chance.

The Composite Index tested the green trendline and appears to be bouncing higher. This green trendline also held the Composite Index when it was tested on March 4, 2026. The Composite Index could be going down to test the positive crossover of its moving averages, which can be a very bullish setup during an uptrend. During bear markets, this signal is much less effective. There is bearish divergence in the Composite Index and the RSI. Both the Composite Index and the RSI have not made recent displacement highs while the Oslo FoB Index has made a new recent price high. I put in a light blue trendline on the Composite Index and the RSI to help the reader see the divergence. The Composite Index also has some older history of making displacement highs at its current displacement.

The RSI is rallying up to the higher end of its possible displacement range for a bear market. The RSI did make higher displacement highs during the bear markets in July 2021 and April of 2025. I remember writing about this situation when it was showing in an update from April 2025. The bear market ended up winning in April of 2025. Another interesting observation is the Oslo FoB Index’s current price is very close to the final price high from April 2025. The RSI does have history of making displacement turns near its current displacement. The blue trendline mentioned earlier that is displaying a divergence signal is a continuation of the divergence line drawn previously. The RSI has tested the underside of this blue line three separate times and failed. We are going to find out what happens on the fourth test in the coming week.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is making higher price highs and higher price lows. The Oslo FoB Index also had the strength to break above the 98.80 NOK confluence of resistance. This is good news for the crowd that wants higher Oslo FoB Index prices. However, the RSI and the Composite Index are displaying a bearish divergence signal. I would be more concerned with the divergence signals if the Oslo FoB Index was trading at 103.67 NOK or 108.90 NOK, but the divergence is there. The divergence signal means the move higher is losing momentum, it does not mean the price can’t go higher.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction