Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 17th April 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd April 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.90% during this week of trading, finishing the week at 97.16 NOK. There was very little price movement during this week of trading.

There were only minor adjustments needed to update the chart. The green dotted horizontal support zones have been the preferred method to find support. I refreshed a second unrelated method to find support. The pink horizonal solid lines are where the two unrelated methods overlap. The idea is these support areas should be stronger. Notice that there are two pink independent support zones in the low 80’s NOK.

The Oslo FoB Index uptrend faces its first test at the 94.87 NOK horizontal support zone. A break below this would signal potential weakness. The next sign will be breaking below the green upward sloping trendline. Notice that the Oslo FoB Index has made a higher price high. The trend of lower price lows and lower highs has been interrupted.

The Composite Index retreated from its historically high displacement from last week. The first obvious areas of support are prior displacement highs and the green downward sloping trendline that connects a prior divergence signal. There is a large spread between the Composite Index’s current displacement and its moving averages. The Composite Index is stretched, meaning at some point this will need to be resolved. The purple upsloping trendline could offer additional support when tested. The Composite Index does have a history of making displacement highs at slightly lower displacements, meaning it’s possible it uses the same displacements as support.

The RSI has also retreated from last week’s high displacement. The moving averages for both indicators now have a positive displacement. Both indicators could be retreating to test the positive crossover of their moving averages. This can be a very bullish signal if the Oslo FoB Index is in a bull market. The RSI’s fast-moving average and the green upward sloping trendline are very close to the same displacement. This displacement is a high probability target for the RSI.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index appears to be consolidating or rolling over after a sharp rally. Both Indicators have room to move to lower displacement levels toward their respective support levels. The first area of support for the Oslo FoB Index is in the 94.87 NOK price area. The Oslo FoB Index has a history of making seasonal price highs and high displacement levels in the indicators during this time of year. The main reason I could argue that the price final price highs may not be in for this swing up is the Composite Index’s recent displacement high. The Composite Index is not showing a divergence signal in the recent data.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction