Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 28th February 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 3rd March 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 6.70% during this week of trading to end the week at 85.93 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index broke below the 87.64 NOK horizontal support zone and the brown upward sloping trendline.

The next horizontal support line is 83.95 NOK and there is a black upward sloping trendline near the same price that could offer additional support. I did modestly adjust the green dotted horizontal support lines by using the data from the most recent high. The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to grind sideways waiting for a catalyst to get the market moving.

The Composite Index displacement has made a large move down vs the corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index does have some history at its current displacement for making lows. I’m not seeing any bullish displacement currently in the Composite Index vs the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is showing some mild divergence with the RSI. The large spread between the Composite Index’s moving averages is also starting to converge. I’ve mentioned in prior updates that when trendlines drawn from divergence signals on indicators will usually signal a change or acceleration of trend. The grey upward sloping trendline will intersect the black downward sloping trendline on March 3. The grey upward sloping trendline will intersect the green downward sloping trendline on March 6. These are reliable time targets plus or minus a bar or two. Remember, these do not have to be major trend changes, but they can be.

The RSI is diverging with the Oslo FoB Index and the Composite Index. The RSI is currently at a higher displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price. I’m looking at the low trade from February 4 compared to today’s Oslo FoB Index price and RSI displacement. The pink dashed trendline drawn on the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI will help your eye locate the divergence. The RSI needs to bounce to stay inside the bullish RSI range. The middle of the W from the previous RSI low could offer some additional support. I mentioned in prior updates that the previous displacement lows in the RSI were the lowest levels recorded during a bull market within the available history. This brings up the possibility that the Oslo FoB Index isn’t in a bull market. The black downward sloping trendline intersects the green upward sloping trendline on Friday March 7th.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index continues to move sideways in price. As usual, there are bullish and bearish developments. The bullish view is the Oslo FoB Index has made its seasonal highs in March through May each year within the available history. The high from December 2024, doesn’t seem to fit the past data for a seasonal high. I’m seeing some bullish divergence in the RSI vs the Oslo FoB Index and the Composite Index. The indicators have moved down to the lower end of their displacement ranges. The bearish view is mostly coming from the RSI displacement low from early February 2025 and the recent displacement high. Both displacements for recent RSI lows and highs are in a grey area to determine if the Oslo FoB Index is in a bullish or bearish market.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction