Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 24th January 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 27th January 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index traded lower this week by 3.15% to finish the week at 92.90 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 93.38 NOK horizontal support line and the grey diagonal support line that the Oslo FoB Index has used for support and resistance.

The Oslo FoB Index is below the 93.38 NOK support line, however, these support zones are not a razor fine line. Think it is as more of a magic market or wider zone. The Oslo FoB Index is also testing the price highs from December 13th, 2024. There is a saying in technical analysis that what was once resistance turns into support when tested from above and vice versa. I made no changes to the Oslo FoB Index chart because of the quite trading this week.

The Composite Index rallied considerably more than the Oslo FoB Index during the week. The Composite Index appears to be rolling back down to test a lower displacement level. The Composite Index does have history at its current displacement level of making highs and lows. The spread between the moving averages is also getting large for a bullish trend. In the very short term, there is bullish divergence in the Composite Index vs the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI.

The RSI is holding the 40 (ish) displacement zone. If the Oslo FoB Index is really in a bull market, the 38 to 40 (ish) displacement zone should hold. The spread in the moving averages for the RSI are also getting wide for a bullish trend. The RSI also has history of making lows at its current displacement.

In summary, this week’s update is shorter than usual because of the lack of price movement in the Oslo FoB Index. I still believe the seasonal price highs for the Oslo FoB Index are not in, yet. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 93.38 NOK horizontal support zone and the grey upsloping trendline. This should be a stronger support zone than just testing a horizontal support zone or a trendline individually. I still believe the Oslo FoB Index will test the area near the pink trendline that connects the previous years seasonal high prices. I’ll also suggest that there is a time target for today / Monday that should be a price high, low or middle of the move signal. The time target doesn’t suggest how big the move will be, it suggests that we should see a change or acceleration in trend. Time will tell.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction