Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 3rd January 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 6th January 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 9.32% this week to finish the week at 126.06 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index did run into challenges overtaking the three independent but clustered resistance zones between $135 NOK and 140 NOK this week.

The Oslo FoB Index is now near the 126.43 NOK horizontal support zone. There is a red upward sloping trendline that connects past price highs and lows that could offer additional support if tested. We’ve seen in prior years when the Oslo FoB Index makes substantial gains, like it has the pasts two weeks, it does have a tendency to experience a sharp pullback in price.

The Composite Index has rolled over and appears to be going down to possible test the positive crossover of its moving averages. As mentioned in the past, this can be a very bullish setup if the Composite Index successfully tests the positive crossover and rebounds to higher displacements. The Composite Index is still near the higher end of its historical displacement range and may need more time to retrace its recent gains. There is also a black downward sloping trendline that could offer additional support near the positive crossover of the moving averages. The bearish divergence in the Composite Index is still present, represented now by the green trendline in the Composite Index pane. The Oslo FoB Index made a higher price while the Composite Index made a lower displacement high.

The RSI has made a larger pullback in its displacement vs the Composite Index. The RSI is testing a black dotted trendline, drawn from a prior divergence signal, and its fast-moving average. The moving averages now have a positive displacement. The RSI is also dropping back to possibly test the positive crossover of its moving averages. There is brown upward sloping trendline that could also offer support if tested below the slow-moving average.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is pulling back from its recent extraordinary advance in price. The green horizontal dotted trendlines should offer support if tested. When an asset experiences a rapid move up in price, when it does pull back, it will “usually” retrace 1/3, 1/2, or 2/3 of it’s recent gains. These numbers are very close to the existing green dotted horizontal prices at 118.35 NOK, 111.26 NOK and 103.76 NOK. Imagine that! Can the Oslo FoB Index can continue to drop in price, absolutely. However, I don’t believe the seasonal price highs are in.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction