Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 29th November 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 2nd December 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 2.67% during this week of trading to finish the week at 86.99 NOK. I drew in a few more trendlines for your review. The red and dotted green upward sloping trendlines.

I extended the price grid, introduced in last week’s update, to display higher price targets. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be respecting this price grid. I find it interesting but not surprising that these grid price targets are also overlapping with the pre-existing red dotted horizontal resistance lines. Does anyone still think that this is coincidence?

The Composite Index fell much more than the corresponding move down in the Oslo FoB Index. This is usually a bullish action. The moving averages are starting to converge. The Composite Index is displaying a very bullish signal. The Composite Index is at a lower displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at higher corresponding prices. The brown downward sloping trendline on the Composite Index displays this signal. The Composite Index does have a history of using this displacement as support in its history.

The RSI is continuing to operate inside a bullish displacement range. The RSI is diverging with the Composite Index. The RSI’s green slow-moving average could offer support if tested. The RSI also has history at this displacement.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index recently tested support at 86.01 NOK and has reacted back up. This along with the bullish setup in the Composite Index and the RSI, the Oslo FoB Index appears to be winding up for another move to higher prices. The logical targets would be 95.27 NOK and 99.96 NOK price areas. The bullish signal in the Composite Index favours the 99.96 NOK price target. Could I be wrong with this opinion? Absolutely. One of the first signs my opinion is incorrect would be the Oslo FoB Index price going below the green dotted upward sloping trendline. If the Oslo FoB Index price continues to fall, the green dotted horizontal support zones along with the green dotted, and solid green trendlines should offer additional support.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction