Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 15th November 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 18th November 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 12.39% during this week of trading to finish the week at 86.68 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index broke above the black dashed downward sloping resistance line, the red solid downward sloping resistance line and a horizontal resistance zone near 76.59 NOK.

During this past week I drew a purple upward sloping trendline the connects the previous recent highs to see if it would offer any resistance and it didn’t. This purple trendline may offer additional support when tested from above. If you remember from a previous update, the 90.91 NOK resistance zone is a confluence of resistance between two unrelated methods. These resistance zones are usually very strong resistance zones. The Oslo FoB Index is currently above the 85.76 resistance zone and appears to have broken above the zone. However, these zones should not be drawn with a razor fine line. It wise to give them a little wiggle room. Also notice the trend has obviously changed to higher highs and higher lows. I did update the support zones in the Oslo FoB Index chart.

The Composite Index is trading near the higher end of its historical displacement range. Notice the divergence between the Composite Index and the RSI and Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index and RSI are making higher highs while the Composite Index has not. This is represented in the indicator panes with black trendlines. This is a sign the move up is losing momentum. The Composite Index does have a history of making highs at this displacement. When the Composite Index rolls over it will be going down to test the positive crossover of its moving averages.

The RSI is clearly operating in a bullish displacement range. The RSI is also at the higher end of its historical displacement range. Meaning, the RSI is likely to pull back from this displacement area, but it does have some room to move higher.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index seasonal rally has started. However, the Oslo FoB Index is near or at resistance and there is divergence between the Composite Index and the Oslo FoB Index and RSI. I believe the Oslo FoB Index is heading to the 90.91 NOK resistance zone, in the short-term, but it might not go there in a straight line.

This is a shorter update. I feel like I’ve covered this upcoming rally so many times in previous updates that I may be repeating myself unnecessarily.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction