Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 8th November 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 11th November 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 4.68% during this week of trading to finish the week at 77.13 NOK. The first thing I noticed on the chart was the Oslo FoB Index current price.

The Oslo FoB Index has broken above the red down sloping trendline and the black dashed downward sloping trendline. The Oslo FoB Index is also slightly above the 76.59 horizontal resistance zone. The Oslo FoB Index did make a higher price low but has not made a higher price high, yet. The Oslo FoB Index needs to close above the October 11, 2024, price of 77.39 NOK to make a higher price high. The next horizontal resistance zone above the market is 80.80 NOK. This would be a logical short-term price objective.

In last week’s update, I published work that displayed a confluence of support and resistance zones. The 76.59 NOK was a resistance zone with confluence from two different resistance methods. This, along with the Oslo FoB Index breaking above the two downward sloping trendlines near 76.59 NOK, adds to the significance of this week of trading. The next resistance zone that displays a confluence of resistance is in the 91.20 NOK price area. The solid green upward sloping trendline would be the first logical support area under current prices.

The Composite Index has rallied above its short and longer term moving averages and appears to have retraced to almost test the topside of its slow-moving average. The moving averages do have a negative displacement and as mentioned in last week’s update, I don’t think this signal should be given as high of a probability currently.

The RSI also appears to have tested its moving average crossover. Similar to the Composite Index, the moving averages now appear to be moving higher. The RSI fast-moving average tested and bounced off its slow-moving average. The RSI’s current displacement does have a small amount of history of making turns at this displacement and is getting near the upper end of its historical trading range. However, if this is a start of a bull market for the Oslo FoB Index, the RSI has plenty of room to move to higher displacements.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is now trading above the 76.59 NOK resistance zone and has broken above the two downward sloping trendlines. This is a significant event if you’re looking for higher Oslo FoB Index prices. Does this mean the Oslo FoB Index can’t pull back in price? No. What it does mean is what was once resistance now becomes support. The black downward sloping trendline should add some price support to Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction