Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 11th October 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 14th October 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 8.56% this week to end the week at 77.39 NOK. The first things I noticed on the chart was the Oslo FoB Index made a higher price high during the week and the RSI’s current displacement.

These are encouraging development if you want higher Oslo FoB Index prices. The Oslo FoB Index broke through purple downward sloping trendline during the week. The Oslo FoB Index is now testing the black dashed downward sloping resistance line along with the 76.59 NOK horizontal resistance zone. There are two unrelated techniques showing resistance near this price which should offer stronger resistance. The red downward sloping trendline that connects the two seasonal highs from six months ago is finally coming into play as well.

The Composite Index has made a large move up in its displacement this week. The Composite Index is now at a high displacement relative to its history and will need to pull back to a lower displacement. The Composite Index also has history at its current displacement. The next displacement pull back will be going down to possibly test the positive crossover of it’s moving averages.

The RSI current displacement is the most important development in the chart. I’ve covered this topic many times in prior updates, the RSI has range rules it uses for bull and bear markets. The RSI is now at a displacement it hasn’t used in bear markets in the available data. In the available history, has the RSI used this displacement in a bear market? The RSI is at the high historical displacement and will need to pull back to reset. The RSI should make a low in the bullish displacement range it uses for the Oslo FoB Index.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index may have put in its seasonal lows. Is it possible the Oslo FoB Index can make a lower low? Absolutely, but the probability of this happening has dropped significantly during the past week of trading. The big clue will be the displacement the RSI uses to make its next displacement low. I’ve covered the possibility of the Oslo FoB Index making seasonal lows now for more than a month in these updates. I don’t have much more color to bring currently. The big development is BUY THE PULL BACKS in the Oslo FoB Index. The purple trendline connecting the Oslo FoB Index past yearly highs would be a logical price target looking out into the future, if this seasonal trend in prices continue.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction