The London Fish Exchange

LFEX European Aquaculture Snapshot to 11th October, 2024

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The LFEX Norwegian Exporters Index for Week 41 2024 ended the week up +5.41NOK / +7.81% to stand at 74.72 NOK (in EUR terms 6.33 / + 0.42 / +7.07%) FCA Oslo Week ending Thursday vs previous Thursday.

The NOK rate ended higher at 11.80 to the Euro over the period Thursday to Thursday +0.08 NOK or +0.68%. The Fish Pool future October was reported up Thursday to Thursday +0.30 NOK / +0.43% at 70.5 NOK.

The Last Week

All change? Prices opened the week stronger at 71.29 NOK a jump of 1.98 NOK / 2.68%, and by and large many had thought this to be the high and prices would ease a little over the week. Monday showed a very modest decline at 71.09 inline with expectations, Tuesday firmed slightly but still in the ballpark at 71.66 NOK. By Wednesday we saw the index edge up a further 1.00 NOK to 72.63, and an acceleration on Thursday up a further 2 NOK to close out the week at 74.72, a long way from expectations. Price movements like this are not uncommon, Week 41 2023 saw a 7.43% gain. Can we assume the bottom (67.66 NOK in week 40) has been baked in for the year? Larger fish 5-6s pricing remained pretty level at 76ish but both 3-4s and 4-5s progressed upwards as volumes normalised to both push up the index and compress spreads. Why? reducing volumes on smaller fish.

Spreads tightened significantly by the week ending Thursday to less than 5 NOK, with 4-5s and 5-6s within a NOK of each other.

Intraweek FX volatility was minimal although the rate reduced early in the week to 11.66 before reversing Tuesday / Wednesday to 11.80 a 1.2 % range in the week.

Next Week

Early pricing indications from sellers for week 42 are coming at a level which prices the index at around 77 NOK, a 3 NOK lift on yesterday. Producers are pushing prices based on a reduction of volumes. There is a significant spread of different prices being offered around the market to get to this average index level. The question is how will buyers react to these higher levels?

Volumes – Fresh Export

Volume figures for week 40 (2024) was 26,543 tons as compared to 25,979 in 2023. Volumes for weeks 41 and 42 (2023) were 24,609 and mm respectively for comparison.

Historical Price Guidance for Next Week

The LFEX Norwegian Exporters Index for Week 42 2023 was down -3.34%, -2.84 NOK to stand at 82.17 NOK (approximately 7.03 EUR) FCA Oslo. The NOK rate was 11.69 and the Fish Pool future October was reported at 82.0 NOK.

David Nye’s technical analysis report will be published on Monday.

Did You Know?

The best way to follow price changes during the week?

We track intra- week pricing on the index and publish this early afternoon Monday to Thursday and later on a Friday to capture the following weeks pricing. It is the ideal way to get a handle on intra-week volatility and provides users with a trusted and much better picture of the market movement and sentiment, particularly in weeks like we have just seen.

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