Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 30th August 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 2nd September 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 2.33% this week to finish the week at 70.01 NOK. This has been another quiet week for the Oslo FoB Index.

The trend of lower lows and lower highs is continuing since the last price high in July 2024. The Oslo FoB Index is very close to the 69.72 NOK horizontal support zone and the price target projected by the pink rectangle. The Oslo FoB Index is also testing the price lows from July 2023. I moved the purple upsloping trendline to connect the price lows in 2021 and 2022. This purple trendline is now just below the current Oslo Fob Index price.

The Composite Index is testing its fast-moving average and the purple up sloping trend line. The purple up sloping trend line is connecting previous bullish divergence displacement signals in the Composite Index. This type of support line is more significant than an ordinary trendline. The Composite Index has been displaying bullish divergence since the middle of July. One concerning issue is the Composite Index has made a significant move higher in its displacement vs. the same corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is more overbought at lower Oslo FoB Index prices. This is not bullish behaviour.

The RSI is displaying some bullish divergence since the August 20th, 2024. The Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price while the RSI is at a higher displacement. The RSI does continue to operate in a bearish displacement range. The RSI has used its current displacement as support within the available history. The rally in the Oslo FoB Index basically started at this displacement after making a small head and shoulders bottom in August of 2023.

In summary, this is another week of sideways price action in the Oslo FoB Index. This week’s trading did not give a lot of significant clues about finding a bottom in prices. The indicators are oscillating up and down while the Oslo FoB Index grinds sideways. In the short term, it will be interesting to see if the Composite Index can hold its fast-moving average and the purple up sloping trendline. I’m still thinking the Oslo FoB Index is searching for a bottom in prices. The overall picture in the indicators is more bullish than bearish. However, as noted above, the Composite Index showing some bearish behaviour in the shorter time frame. The trend of making a seasonal low a little earlier each year in the available history did not happen this year. The lows in 2021 occurred during the month of September.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction