Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 23rd August 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 27th August 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 2% during this week of trading to finish the week at 71.68 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index has been trending sideways since the end of June 2024.

I did not make many changes to the Oslo FoB Index chart this week because there was no need because of the lack of price movement. The Oslo FoB Index did make a slightly lower low vs. the low trade in June. The Oslo FoB Index also broke below the purple trendline that connects the low prices in the available history.

The Composite Index continues to show bullish divergence vs. the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is continuing to hold its fast moving average. The moving averages are also continuing to converge moving closer to having the fast-moving average positive displacement above the slow-moving average.

The RSI is continuing to operate in a bear markets displacement range. The RSI is also showing some bullish divergence vs the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI is at a higher displacement when the Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price. The green line on the RSI pane displays this bullish divergence. This is important detail. Why? The main purpose of the Composite Index is to display bullish and bearish divergence with a security and the RSI at change of trends. The RSI is notorious for not displaying bullish or bearish divergence at trend changes in a security. It’s a sign to pay attention. If the RSI can continue to move towards higher displacements, the black dotted trendline is a likely target.

In summary, this week’s report is more brief than prior updates because of the lack of price movement. We are seeing bullish divergence in the Composite Index and the RSI. The Oslo FoB Index has retraced all/most the prior rally from August of 2023 through April 2024, like other years prior lows. The Oslo FoB Index is testing one of the price projection targets represented by the black and pink rectangles. It’s still my opinion that the Oslo FoB Index will be making a seasonal low in prices in the next month to 6 weeks like it has in the available history of data. I’d suggest going back and looking at the seasonal price lows from prior years and how the Composite Index and RSI behaved during those time periods. Notice how the Oslo FoB Index reacts when the Composite Index and the RSI cross their slow- and fast-moving averages near these seasonal lows.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction