Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 16th August 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 19th August 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 2.02% during this week of trading to finish at 73.14 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index has been grinding sideways since the end of June 2024.

The Oslo FoB Index is sitting on a horizontal support zone and the purple trendline that connects the previous yearly lows within the available historical data. Notice the Oslo FoB Index did make a slightly lower low in price vs. the low price in near the blue 5 on the chart. I drew in a solid blue downtrend line connecting the recent high prices. It appears the Oslo FoB Index is breaking above this solid blue trendline.

The Composite Index is showing a very bullish divergence signal. The Composite Index is making a higher low and holding its fast-moving average, while the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI are making lower lows. This is represented by the black trendlines drawn on the Composite Index and the RSI. Notice the spread between the fast- and slow-moving averages, it’s about as wide of spread between the two moving averages as historically has been seen. Meaning, this is another reason to be on the lookout for a possible rally in the Oslo FoB Index and Composite Index.

The RSI is also showing some bullish divergence vs the lows from May of 2024. The RSI is at a higher displacement vs. the same or lower price in the Oslo FoB Index. This divergence signal is over a longer time, so the signal isn’t as strong as the bullish divergence signal in the Composite Index. The RSI is still operating in a bearish displacement zone for the Oslo FoB Index.

In summary, I’m now thinking that the price target low around 61.50 NOK isn’t as likely as I once thought. We are seeing more bullish developments in the chart and indicators while at the same time the Oslo FoB Index is at a projected price target from the pink rectangle around 69.72 NOK. I’ve mentioned in prior updates that the seasonal price lows appear to be happening a little earlier each year within the available historical data. Based on what I’ve mentioned in the this report, I’d be willing to go long the Oslo FoB Index with a stop order under the 69.75 horizontal support zone.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction