Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 26th July 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th July 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.92% to close the week at 77.78 NOK. I made some minor adjustments to the horizontal support zones below the current Oslo FoB Index price.

I drew in a red downward trendline that connects the two most recent highs and a black upward trendline that connects the two most recent lows. These two trendlines could offer additional resistance or support when tested. The Oslo FoB Index did make a higher low and a higher high in July. However, I would not assign a lot of significance in this development yet, but it is encouraging development if you want higher Oslo FoB Index prices.

The Composite Index has made a substantial move down in its displacement this week. The Composite Index finished last week near the 110 displacement and has fallen to the lower end of its historical range. This has happened while the Oslo FoB Index has made a minor price decline vs. the move in the displacement of the Composite Index. This is a bullish development; the Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices. This signal is also represented on the chart by the black downward trendline in the Composite Index pane. If this signal works, the likely price target is 86.16 NOK horizontal resistance zone. The Composite Index is also testing the same displacement that it used for support for the price low this year. The Composite Index does have history at this displacement.

The RSI has also moved lower during this week of trading. The RSI is testing the displacement area it uses as support during bull markets. If the RSI can hold the 35 to 40 displacement range and attempt another rally, this would be an encouraging development for the bulls. The RSI most recent high was near the 50-displacement area, this is bearish action. As mentioned in previous updates, one of the helpful tools of the RSI is its range rules for bull and bear markets.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index has a few more bullish developments this week. The divergence between the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI and Oslo FoB Index is bullish. The Oslo FoB Index is also testing a horizontal support zone. The Oslo FoB Index has also made one higher low and one higher high. These are all bullish developments. Can the Oslo FoB Index rally from here? Yes, I think in the short term that is probable. However, I don’t believe the final seasonal lows are in. I still believe the Oslo FoB Index is going to test the 61 NOK price area before the final low in the next two months. The 61 NOK price target was established using the geometry target from the green rectangles discussed in previous updates.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

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