Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 19th July 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd July 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 2.47% to end the week at 80.95 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is close to testing the underside of the 81.22 NOK horizontal resistance zone.

The Oslo FoB Index did make a higher price low on July 4th, 2024, but has not made a higher price high. I added a dark purple trendline that connects the extreme prices lows in the available history of the Oslo FoB Index. The recent bottom in the Oslo FoB Index price was close to this dark purple trendline.

The Composite Index has rallied to higher historical displacement and appears to be rolling over. The red fast-moving average is a likely short-term target. The spread between the short term and longer-term moving averages appears to be a wider than normal displacement. Meaning, the spread between the moving averages is likely to narrow soon and the Composite Index will need to fall. Is there bearish divergence in the Composite Index vs the and the RSI? Yes, represented by the grey trendlines drawn on the Composite Index and the RSI.

The RSI has rallied up the 50-displacement area. The RSI has historically used the 55 to 65 displacement area as resistance in bear markets. Meaning, the RSI does have more room to rally. The moving averages for the RSI don’t look as tired as the moving averages on the Composite Index. I’ve mentioned this many times in past updates, the RSI uses displacement ranges during bullish and bearish markets. The RSI is still operating in the bearish displacement range for the Oslo FoB Index.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index can continue to rally. I think the green (B) in the chart is a logical target, but I would not assign a 100% probability to this target either. The bearish divergence in the Composite Index is implying that this move up is losing momentum. I mentioned in a past update, that if the move from the blue 1 to 2 in late April to early May 2024 is in the same wave degree as the move in prices after the blue 5 in late June 2024, this move will likely have a more complex price structure.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction