Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 12th July 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 15th July 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 7.37% to finish the week at 78.99 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index has made a higher low and now has made a higher price high since June 24th, 2024.

The Oslo FoB Index is now testing the underside of the purple trendline that connects the last several years price lows. This purple trendline should offer some resistance along with the price lows for early June 2024, near the blue coloured 3 in the chart. My methods do not show any resistance at the current price but prior lows when tested from below is usually a likely resistance area. The Oslo FoB Index didn’t move enough to make any substantial changes to the previous last two weeks charts.

The Composite Index has made a significant rally vs the corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. As mentioned in previous updates, this usually isn’t a good sign if you want higher prices. The Composite Index is more overbought at lower Oslo FoB Index prices. The Composite Index does have some history using its current displacement as a high.

The RSI has also made a much larger move up vs the same corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. The moving averages now have a positive displacement. The faster moving average in red is above the slower moving average in teal. This is usually a good sign if you’re looking for higher prices. This doesn’t mean it’s straight up from here but it’s a constructive development. The RSI does have history for using its current displacement as support, so it can also be used as resistance. The big question is at what displacement will the RSI rollover and start going back down. The RSI indicator has a bullish and bearish displacement range, it is one of the major strengths of this indicator.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is displaying some bullish and bearish characteristics. I continue to think the Oslo FoB Index is due for a rebound rally but may need to rest or pull back to help reset the indicators. Looking back at the available history, I see seasonal price lows in the Oslo FoB Index in late August of 2023, late August 2022, and early September 2021. It’s July 12th, I’m thinking history will likely repeat itself again this year. I still believe the target price lows, represented by the rectangles in the chart near 61 NOK, is still in play.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction