Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 7th June 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 10th June 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 14.57% during this week of trading to end the week at 78.71 NOK. It’s been an interesting last couple of weeks tracking the Oslo FoB Index decline.

The purple trendline that I mentioned a few weeks ago as a possible target for the 2024 seasonal low is just below the current Oslo FoB Index price. There is also a horizontal support zone at the same price, 78.07 NOK. I updated the support and resistance zones again this week for your review. Markets use the start of strong price moves up and down to generate future support and resistance. Meaning, when the Oslo FoB Index is in a rapid decline, I need to use the most recent “strong” price data to provide the most accurate support and resistance horizontal zones. Notice the tan rectangle that we used to generate a future price target from an update a few weeks ago is also near the current Oslo FoB Index price.

The Composite Index is displaying bullish divergence with the price of the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index started moving higher last Friday while the Oslo FoB Index continues to decline in price. The Composite Index is also testing the underside of the same displacement that started the final rally in the Oslo FoB Index in March of 2024. The Composite Index has used this displacement as support so it can also use this displacement as resistance.

The RSI is at one of its lowest displacements in the available historical data. The RSI displacement is very close to the displacement lows in July of 2022. The RSI decline did pause in July of 2022 and then rally but the corresponding move up in the Oslo FoB Index was minimal. The RSI then made a lower low in August of 2022 and the Oslo FoB Index made its seasonal low in prices.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is in a steep decline. There are some logical areas of price support near the current Oslo FoB Index price. For example, a horizontal support zone, the purple upsloping trendline, the measured price move target represented by the tan rectangle and the indicators are near their historical displacement lows. However, it is very unlikely the final price lows for the Oslo FoB Index are in and this means the next rally, when it happens, is just a bounce up in a declining market.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction