Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 17th May 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 20th May 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 3.46% during this week’s trading to 127.24 NOK. I didn’t make many changes to the chart because there was not a need.

You can see the horizontal support and resistance zones above and below the current Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be making a lower price high vs. the price highs in March of 2024. The last significant price low was at 117.47 NOK. We’ll see if the if the 117.47 NOK horizontal support zone can hold the Oslo FoB Index. If not, the trend of lower highs and lower lows will begin, the definition of a downtrend. I moved the red dotted trendline that the Oslo FoB Index used during its price drop from March to late April 2024. The current move down is following the same angle down. The current price highs are the same as price as the price highs in April of 2023 and the final price high in 2022. Notice that April 2023 price high was also the first lower price high that started the March to August downtrend in the Oslo FoB Index. Is history repeating itself?

The Composite Index tested the positive crossover of its moving averages and appears to have failed the test. The Composite Index did use its current displacement for form a W bottom in February 2024. The most recent displacement high was at the same displacement as the price high in May of 2023. After failing at this displacement in May of 2023 the Oslo FoB Index had a steep, fast move down in prices.

The first thing I looked at in the chart was the displacement high in the RSI after I saw the Oslo FoB Index broke this week’s tight trading range. The RSI failed in the 60ish displacement area. The RSI also appears to have failed to hold the positive crossover of its moving averages. The Oslo FoB Index has used the 60 to 65 displacement area as resistance during downtrends. The most recent displacement high is near the 60-displacement area. The recent displacement highs are also same displacement high the Oslo FoB Index used in late May 2023 before the start of steep price decline. The RSI has used the current displacement as support, meaning its possible this displacement can be used as support again.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index technicals for the price chart are starting to deteriorate. The bearish view of the Oslo FoB Index is mentioned in the three previous paragraphs. The March to May seasonal price highs trend appears to be continuing along with both indicators are not trading near their lower displacement ranges. If you were trading the Oslo FoB Index, this would not be the place to all in with a long position. However, like most weeks, there are some reasons to have an opposing view. The Oslo FoB Index is still trading above the 126.38 NOK horizontal price zone. The 126.38 NOK support held support when last tested. Both indicators have tested their current displacements and rallied. The displacement move down in the Composite Index appears to be much larger than the corresponding move down in prices. Is the Composite Index getting more oversold at higher prices?

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction