Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 10th May 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 13th May 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 1.29% from last Friday’s close to this Friday’s closing price. I refreshed the horizontal support and resistance zones for the Oslo FoB Index.

The Oslo FoB Index has spent most of the month of May between is closest support zone and resistance zones. I reintroduced the blue upward sloping dotted trendline the Oslo FoB Index used for support in January and February of 2024. This trendline can also act as resistance when tested from below. We should find out next week if the series of higher price highs and higher price lows is going to persist in the Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing the 131.87 horizontal resistance zone.

The Composite Index has moved up to the higher end of its displacement range and is currently testing a displacement that it has used for support and resistance in the past. The spread on the moving averages is continuing to converge. The next move down the Composite Index will likely test the positive crossover of its moving averages. This is a bullish setup if the Composite Index holds the moving averages when tested.

The RSI held the lower end of its bullish displacement range when last tested in March and May. It will be very interesting to see where the RSI makes its next displacement high. It will tell us a lot about the status of the rally in the Oslo FoB Index. The first thing I saw when I looked at the chart was the RSI relative to it’s moving averages. It is testing the positive displacement crossover of its moving averages. This can be a very bullish setup if the RSI can rally from here. Go back and look at the Composite Index and the RSI to see what happens when these indicators test the positive or negative crossovers. When respected, a strong move in the Oslo FoB Index usually follows. The RSI also has history at its current displacement.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is displaying some very bullish short-term signals that I mentioned in the previous paragraphs. The bearish view is still the apparent seasonality of the price of the Oslo FoB Index. Another interesting issue is the latest displacement high in the Composite Index rolled back down at the same displacement high as in February of 2024. The Oslo FoB Index experience a significant retracement in price between February and March of 2024. This is the same displacement high that signalled a significant price high in the Oslo FoB Index in June of 2023.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction