Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 1st March 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 4th March 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index closed this week’s trading at 119.90 NOK, down .05 NOK from last Friday’s close. The solid green support trend line was breached this week.

The Oslo FoB Index is attempting to test the underside of this green trendline and the 120.18 NOK horizontal resistance zone. I drew in a dashed green trendline that caught the lows from earlier this week. The Oslo FoB Index continues to make higher highs. The Oslo FoB Index did make a lower low this week. I don’t think that the lower low at this point is a major concern.

The Composite Index is making a steady retreat from its higher displacements while the Oslo FoB Index continues to move sideways. This is bullish behaviour. Notice the Composite Index is making a lower low while the Oslo FoB Index is making a higher low, represented by the black trendline on the Composite Index. The Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices. This is also bullish behaviour. The Composite Index did use its current displacement to start the rallies in November and December of 2023. There was bearish divergence in the Composite Index from Tuesday February 20th to Monday February 26th. Both Indicators made lower highs while the Oslo FoB Index made a higher high.

The RSI is continuing to work within a bullish displacement range. The RSI did have some bearish divergence earlier in the week, mentioned in the previous paragraph. The RSI also has history of making turns at its current displacement.

I have also included a view of the weekly chart in this week’s update ( as opposed to daily). The main reason is to show the bearish divergence on the indicator’s vs the Oslo FoB Index. Notice the Composite Index and the RSI are making lower highs while the Oslo FoB Index made a higher high, represented by the green trendlines. The RSI and the Composite Index are using their fast-moving averages as resistance. The RSI is also having issues trying to overtake the 65-displacement area.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is continuing to display bullish behaviour with some bearish developments. It will be interesting to see in the coming week(s) if the Oslo FoB Index can make a higher price high. The weekly view of the Oslo FoB Index is concerning for the bulls with the bearish setup in the indicators.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction