Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 29th September 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 2nd October 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index finished the week at 82.68 NOK up 3.32% for the week. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be moving above the 82.31 horizontal resistance zone and the price moving average.

The next horizontal resistance zone is at 86.00 NOK. You can see the horizonal support zones under the current Oslo FoB Index price on the chart. There is also a green upsloping trendline the Oslo FoB Index has been using for support since late August. The trend of higher highs and higher lows is continuing.

The Composite Index is at the same displacement as last Friday but now it is testing its fast-moving average from above as possible support. The trend of higher highs and higher lows is also continuing in the Composite Index. The Composite Index is at the higher end of its displacement history. At some point, the Composite Index is going to reset lower. If the Oslo FoB Index can trade sideways or slightly down while the Composite Index resets, this would be a very bullish signal for the Oslo FoB Index.

The RSI is also at the higher end of its historical displacement. Notice, the RSI is above the 65 displacement. The 65 displacement has been a strong resistance area during corrections in the Oslo FoB Index. What gets my attention is the displacement the RSI and the Composite Index use as resistance after making its first high coming out of a long correction. I drew a pink horizontal line on the RSI and Composite Index starting the first rally coming out of the last two corrections. I drew in red arrows on the indicators at these points. As mentioned in last weeks update, the RSI being above a 65 displacement is a very important development. Coming out of the last two corrections the RSI rallied to the 73 displacement area and rolled back down to make a higher low. The RSI uses the 35 to 40 displacement area as support during rallies. I’d expect similar action this time around. The big question is can the RSI stay above the lows it uses during bull markets in the Oslo FoB Index during the next pull back?

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction