Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 8th September 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 11th September 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index had another week of modest gains, 3.98%. The Oslo FoB Index has broken above the red down sloping trendline. The next horizontal resistance zone is at 77.08 NOK.

I drew in a tan trendline just under the current prices from the lows on August 29, 2023 . This trendline will help give an early sign the move up could be weakening, if breached. I included some price moving averages back into the chart to help give some extra clues as to where support and resistance might be found. There are two price moving averages and a horizontal resistance zone at the 82.31 NOK price area. There is also a price moving average just above the Olso FoB Index’s current price which could offer resistance.

The Composite Index has rallied up to a displacement that has a history of trend changes. Several of the turns at this displacement were short term pullbacks in a rising market. The Composite Index has room to keep moving higher but at some point, it will need to reset lower. It will be very interesting to see what happens when the Composite Index rolls over and tests the positive crossover of its moving averages.

The RSI is testing the green trendline that marked divergence with the Composite Index from early June through early July 2023. This green trendline can offer resistance for the RSI. The RSI also has a history near this displacement for being used for short term support and resistance. Can the RSI break through the 60 to 65 displacement area that has been used for resistance since the Oslo FoB Index peaked in March of 2023? Another clue the Oslo FoB Index might be putting in a low, is during the next retracement, can the RSI hold above the 35 to 40 displacement area that acted as support for rising Oslo FoB Index. The RSI will be also testing the positive displacement of its moving averages during its next retracement.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction