Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 18th August 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd August 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 6% this week. The Oslo FoB Index didn’t slow its decline at the 72.98 NOK horizontal support zone and the orange measured move price target from last week’s report.

The next logical price target is the 68.89 NOK horizontal support zone and the pink measured move target shown on the chart. The Oslo FoB Index can decline below the 68.89 NOK measured move target, the decline can extend lower. The last few years the Oslo FoB Index has bottomed in the high 50’s NOK or low 60’s NOK. The Oslo FoB Index also appears to bottom in the August to October time frame within the available price data.

The Composite Index was repelled by its fast-moving average. The Composite Index is currently testing the green trendline. This green trendline should offer additional support for the Composite Index at this displacement. This green trendline assists in showing positive divergence between the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI. The Composite Index does have some history at this displacement but a better history of making turns at a slightly lower displacement.

The RSI is continuing to move lower. The RSI doesn’t have a history of making lows at its current displacement. In fact, look at the last time the RSI initially broke below its current displacement in July of 2022. The Oslo FoB Index did rebound afterwards, but it was a rally in a declining market.

There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the Oslo FoB Index. There is divergence in the Composite Index between the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI. The indicators are near the lower end of their historical displacement ranges. The Oslo FoB Index is approaching a measured move target price of 68.91 NOK that is at the same displacement as a horizontal support zone. The calendar is entering into a time of year when the Oslo FoB Index has made bottoms within the available price data. Breaking the tan trendline above the Oslo FoB Index price would be an early sign the trend could be changing.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction