Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 21st July 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 24th July 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 4.32% in the last week of trading. The trend of lower lows and lower highs is continuing. The Oslo FoB Index is on top of the 82.28 NOK horizontal support zone.

There is also a price moving average just under the 82.28 NOK support zone that can offer additional support for the Oslo FoB Index. I drew in some red downward sloping trendlines that should offer resistance for rally in the Oslo FoB Index. Breaking above the steeper red trendline would be an early sign the move down is over in the short term.

The Composite Index is near the lower end of its historical displacement. The Composite Index does have history of making V and W bottoms near its current displacement. Notice the Composite Index is above its most recent low while the Oslo FoB Index is making a lower low. Divergence. The current swing down is losing momentum. When the Composite Index does rally, it appears it will be rallying into the negative crossover of its moving averages.

The RSI is also nearing the lower end of historical displacement. The RSI has history of making bottoms near its current displacement. Notice that even the RSI is diverging with the Oslo FoB Index. This is a bullish development. The reason I use the Composite Index is because the RSI is notorious for not giving divergence signals at change of trends. When the RSI does give a divergence signal, pay attention. This signal can be wiped out if the Oslo FoB Index keeps going lower but the signal is there.

I included a second chart in this update. I’m looking for confluence for a final price low target for the Oslo FoB Index. I measured vertical price distance of the previous three prior price downswings. I took those measurements, represented by the green vertical lines, and measured down from the most recent swing price high. I added these measured moves to last week chart projecting possible future price lows to look for confluence. These measured moves also line up the green horizontal support zones in the first chart. It’s interesting that these three unrelated techniques looking for support have overlapping targets. Do you really think this is by chance?

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction