Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 14th July 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 17th July 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 10.7% this week. The Oslo FoB Index broke below the green upsloping trendline on Wednesday and the Index has continued falling in a steep decline.

It appears the trend of lower price highs is continuing. I added back in the brown upward sloping trendline that offered support for the Oslo FoB index in the fall of 2022. There is also a price moving average at the same price as the brown trendline that can offer additional support at these prices. The Oslo FoB Index fell below the price moving average and the 94.49 NOK horizontal support zone. The downward purple trendline could also offer support near the 89.55 NOK horizontal support zone.

The Composite Index fell from a high displacement all the way down to a displacement that has offered support a few times in the history of the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index does have room to continue to move lower.

The RSI rolled over near the 56 displacement. This is a sign of weakness for the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI needs to bounce quickly, or the RSI will continue to exhibit bear market characteristics.

I included a second chart for the Oslo FoB Index. I am taking measurements from what believe to be the middle of the move down for the Oslo FoB Index.

The price of 101.89 NOK is what I believe to be the middle of the price move down for the Oslo FoB Index. I then took geometric measurements from the middle of the move to previous price highs, represented by the different colored rectangles. I made a copy of these rectangles and then made a price projection down from the middle of the move to project lower price targets.

There are techniques to test to see which projected price target is more probable than other projected targets. All three projected price targets fit the existing data. The 68.08 NOK price target appears to fit the existing data better than the 81.21 NOK or 73.18 NOK projected targets. There are no time targets from this technique, only projected price targets.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction