Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 16th June 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 20th June 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 15.15% during the last week. The Oslo FoB Index broke through the green upward sloping trendline and that break gave a very good early signal that the uptrend was over.

The Index also broke the purple downward sloping trendline connecting previous price lows. The Index broke through several horizontal support zones without even slowing down which can give clues to the strength of the move. I use several techniques to calculate support and resistance. I use the dashed horizontal lines for one technique and solid horizontal lines for another technique. I decided this week to give you a different view of the support and resistance. The method I’m using today helps make the chart look less cluttered. The 87.86 NOK support zone was broken today. I drew in a brown upsloping trendline that could offer additional support near the 87.86 NOK support zone. The Oslo FoB Index can still bounce at this price but is likely heading to the next horizontal support zone near 80.84 support zone. There is also a long-term price moving average near 80.84 NOK that could offer additional support.

The Composite Index has only been at this displacement three prior times in the history of the available data. The low in December 2021 was the only low that wasn’t the final low near this displacement. The other two displacement lows were coming off price highs in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is at a very low displacement and it’s only a matter of time before it will need to reset to a higher displacement.

The RSI has broken below displacement levels that I would expect it to hold in a bull market. The RSI is also at a very low displacement and at some point, it will need to reset to a higher displacement. The RSI did use this displacement as resistance when it formed a double bottom in August of 2022. Meaning, it could use this displacement as support. In summary, the trend of lower lows and lower highs continues. The next rally in prices will likely be a corrective move in a bear market for the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction