Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 13th January 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 16th January 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The rapidly increasing price trend the Oslo FoB Index appears to be softening. You can see that the Index price is starting to roll over. I don’t think this is a big surprise.

The momentum for the Index was going to have to slow down at some point. I adjusted the black upward sloping trend line on price to the right a little to catch the lows of early December and a couple of peaks where momentum slowed for the Index. The red upsloping trend line is also nearby. The red trend line has defined the upper end of the current rallies trading range. The Composite Index and the RSI are both diverging with prices in the last week. This is usually a sign that the strength of the move is losing momentum and prices need to consolidate or retreat.

The Composite Index is testing its fasts moving average, it is usually support for the Composite Index. The RSI has used this displacement as support and resistance recently. The indicators moving averages have a positive displacement. Both indicators are near the higher end of their historical displacements. It’s still possible that the Index continues to rally but the strength of the current move up appears to be losing momentum in the short term. I’m using a shorter time frame this week to help you see some of the finer details in the chart.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction