Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 5th August 2022

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 8th August 2022

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB market prices have been trending sideways for the past 11 trading days. I redrew the black trend line to do a better job catching the lows from September and November of 2021.

Prices have held this newly drawn trend line. There is a horizontal price support zone at 69.07NOK. The Miami FoB and Oslo FoB have what appears to be similar setups. One big difference is the Composite Index has moved a long way up without a corresponding move in prices. It might be that the Composite is resetting higher for another move down while prices go sideways. The RSI has similar action but hasn’t moved as far. There is a green downward sloping trend line on the Composite Index. The bulls want the Composite Index to keep moving higher with a corresponding move in prices. The bears would like the Composite Index to find resistance at this displacement.

There is history at this displacement. In August through September of 2021, this displacement stopped 3 attempted rallies while the Oslo FoB prices were correcting. The green downward sloping trendline was resistance for the Composite index in June of 2022. This setup isn’t as clean for the bulls as the setup in the Miami FoB. The move up in the Composite Index without a corresponding move in prices is concerning for the bulls.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction